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Surveys not always accurate election predictors

As pollsters attempt to predict elections outcomes, those who rely on the results need to evaluate them for credibility, cautioned Jeff Williams, CEO of Public Sector Consultants (PSC), who spoke at Capitol Issues Forum March 21.

In his presentation, “Predicting Elections: Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics ... and Surveys", Williams pointed out that survey results can be skewed by using inaccurate population sampling or surveying non-voters instead of voters.

Williams further noted that not including a margin of error may indicate the surveys’ lack of credibility.

Regarding the Michigan mid-term elections, Williams speculated that one of the following scenarios could happen: there could be a major democratic wave, republicans could make every effort to secure their base, or there could be both democratic and republican waves.

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