While the big question late in the election season seems to be, “Is it over for Trump?” in Michigan it’s, “Is it over for Democrats or Republicans?”, said Ed Sarpolus, executive director, Target Insyght, who offered “Pre-election Insights, Outlooks” at Capitol Issues Forum Oct 12.
As Democrats and Republicans vie for House seats, voter turnout will have the greatest impact on results. Minimal in-state campaign efforts from presidential candidates and the failure of both Michigan caucuses to promote a statewide message could discourage Michigan voters, Sarpolus explained. Polling shows candidates with only slight leads could lose if voters don’t show up.
Sarpolus noted most polls do not include independent party voters, even though they affect polling and election results. Outcomes will also be affected by changing demographic trends, such as when some voters more into other districts.
Sarpolus also pointed out that neither presidential candidate has consistently reached 50 percent of support in polls. Based on that number, the popular vote may not be enough to decide the presidency.